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Oil prices drop 4.7% after US‑Iran deal
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Oil prices fell to their lowest level in over three months on Monday, following U.S. and Iran announcing an agreement to lift the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!
I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!
The fizz (is) staying in markets this morning as after 107 days and a seemingly endless number of false dawns, we finally have a deal between the US and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz.
Sentiment has clearly improved… but sentiment is not the same as supply.
In that case, it is not unthinkable that oil prices could rapidly climb to $150 per barrel this summer.
Inventory draws, and partial bypass options can provide some short-term relief, but they cannot fully offset a prolonged disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows.
I'm very concerned we could see oil prices skyrocket later this summer with crude oil prices heading well into the mid- to high-$100 range, and gasoline pump prices heading back to all-time highs around $5 a gallon.
It's great if it happens but I'll believe it when I see actual ships making the free and unhindered passage through the strait.
Our current working assumption is that ~80% of energy flows will resume by the end of Q3.
Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the strait will remain.
sources
- 1.The New York Times
- 2.CNN
- 3.Hindustan Times
- 4.DW News
- 5.The Guardian
- 6.The Korea Herald
- 7.NPR
- 8.Le Monde
- 9.ABC News
- 10.Agence France-Presse
- 11.BBC News
- 12.Bloomberg News
perspectives
- 1.US Foreign Policy
- 2.Iran Foreign Policy
- 3.Saudi Foreign Policy
- 4.Inflation
- 5.Oil Market
- 6.Shipping industry
- 7.Venezuela under Maduro
- 8.Russia-Iran Ties
countries
- 1.Iran, Islamic Republic of
- 2.Israel
- 3.United States
- 4.China
- 5.Switzerland
- 6.France
- 7.Lebanon
- 8.Pakistan
- 9.Germany
- 10.Japan
- 11.Korea, Republic of
- 12.Italy
organizations
- 1.Hezbollah
- 2.Rystad Energy
- 3.Truth Social
- 4.American Automobile Association
- 5.Capital Economics
- 6.Deutsche Bank
- 7.Dow Jones
- 8.FGE NexantECA
- 9.Global Center for Energy Analysis
- 10.International Energy Agency
- 11.Iranian National Security Council
- 12.Japanese Shipowners' Association
persons
- 1.Donald Trump
- 2.Kazem Gharibabadi
- 3.Bob McNally
- 4.Claudio Galimberti
- 5.Emma Li
- 6.Fereidun Fesharaki
- 7.Greg Myre
- 8.Israel Katz
- 9.James David Vance
- 10.Joe McMonigle
- 11.Jorge Leon
- 12.Mandel Ngan