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Oil falls, IEA warns of supply glut after US‑Iran peace deal

Oil falls, IEA warns of supply glut after US‑Iran peace deal

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Oil prices fell after the United States and Iran signed an interim peace agreement, resuming a downward trend that had been paused by President Donald Trump’s threat to restart military action.

US Central Command
1. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
Jakob Larsen
Baltic and International Maritime Council
1. We advise shipowners to continue doing thorough risk assessments and appeal to all parties to put the safety of seafarers first.
2. Due to lack of details and a history of overly optimistic reassurances, we believe the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile, and we still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point.
Tim Waterer
KCM Trade
1. Until those ships start moving consistently again, scepticism lingers and keeps a lid on the downside.
2. Traders are still waiting for hard evidence that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is actually normalising before committing to the next leg lower.
Norihiro Yamaguchi
Oxford Economics
1. For Asian markets, the renewed strength in US semiconductor stocks should provide an additional boost, given the region's heavy exposure to tech shares.
2. The timing is also supportive, as the major central bank policy meetings have now passed, reducing a key source of uncertainty.
3. Putting aside the contents of the MoU, markets are likely to be welcoming the fact that both the US and Iran signed it sooner than initially expected.
Fabien Yip
IG Group
1. There is a notable divergence between sentiment and physical supply – production ramp-up and logistics normalisation will take time.
Tony Sycamore
IG Markets
1. The sell-off extended as energy markets continued to aggressively price in a faster-than-expected return of Iranian barrels following the recent U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.
Tom Kloza
GasBuddy
1. There's an old expression – gas prices go up like a rocket and come down like a feather.
Dan Pickering
Pickering Energy Partners
1. But it isn't going to be $2.85 gasoline.
2. We'll figure out what the new normal is.