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  3. China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs on US Goods Amid Escalating Trade Tensions

China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs on US Goods Amid Escalating Trade Tensions

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China has retaliated against the US with a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and certain types of heavy-duty vehicles. Additionally, China has introduced tighter export controls on certain strategic metals, including tungsten and molybdenum.

    1. China hopefully is going to stop sending us fentanyl, and if they're not, the tariffs are going to go substantially higher.
    1. China hopes that the United States will objectively and rationally view and deal with its own issues like fentanyl, rather than threatening other countries with tariffs at every turn.
    1. This is not a trade war, this is a drug war.
    1. According to the Chinese government's announcement, Chinese countermeasures come into effect on Feb 10.
    1. While we are not as pessimistic as many in markets on the impact of tariffs on China's growth trajectory, it's likely that for China to be able to see stable growth in 2025, we will need to see the domestic demand side picking up the slack.
    1. In such a case, we think China may retaliate on a targeted basis and in a restrained manner, imposing tariffs on selected agricultural products, auto parts, energy.
    2. This strategy of no retaliation may change if the US imposes additional significant tariffs later on.
    1. The escalation in the US-China trade war involving an additional 10 per cent tariff is likely to adversely impact exports from China, inflation in the US, and indirectly the economies of South-East Asia through supply chain links.
    1. It's unlikely to change the market expectation on China's macro outlook this year, which already factored in higher tariffs from the US.
    2. The 10 percent tariff is not a big shock to China's economy.